01 · THE SPIKE
The fastest price spike in 40 years. Then the Fed slammed the brakes.
How fast prices rose compared with a year earlier, against how fast paychecks rose. When the dashed line sits under the color, families are falling behind.
BIDENOMICS · 4 YEARS
Paychecks never caught up.
AMERICA FIRST · SO FAR
Running about even, still paying off the spike.
WHAT THE FLAGS MARK
- $1.9 trillion rescue plan signed
- Fed starts the fastest hikes in 40 years
- Inflation peaks at 9.1%
- Trump takes office
- Tariffs begin
- Iran war begins
Sources: BLS Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) and BLS average hourly earnings. No October 2025 CPI reading because of the shutdown.
02 · THE KITCHEN-TABLE FIVE
Since Election Day.
GAS, NATIONAL AVG
▼ 13¢ since Election Day
AAA · Nov 8
30-YR MORTGAGE
▼ 0.06 pts
Freddie Mac · Nov 5
PRICES, PAST YEAR
No change
BLS CPI · Sep
FOOD, PAST MONTH
▲ 0.5 pts
BLS CPI · Oct
PAYCHECKS, PAST YEAR
▲ 0.1 pts
BLS jobs report · Oct
03 · GAS
The number they want you to watch. Look inside the gallon.
BEFORE THE IRAN WAR
ELECTION DAY
THE WAR PREMIUM
If it fades, credit oil markets and diplomacy, not a bill out of Congress.
THE REFINING BOTTLENECK
What refining adds to a gallon: the 2009–2010 average, then August 2026. It peaked at $1.35 in June 2022.
CRUDE WENT THE OTHER WAY
Crude oil per gallon: the 2011–2014 average, then August 2026, even with a war on.
Gas by president, in today's dollars
ADJUSTED FOR INFLATIONAverage price per gallon in each term, converted to 2026 dollars so a 2012 gallon and a 2026 gallon compare fairly. The small number is what people paid at the time.
EIA monthly regular-gas prices converted with the BLS CPI-U. Each term counted from the month after inauguration. Trump 2.0 runs through Sep 2026 and includes the war months.
04 · THE PROMISE TRACKER
What they said they'd do first.
Reinstate the expired ACA health-insurance tax credits
House Democrats' 100-day agenda
Reverse the Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill
House Democrats' 100-day agenda
“Lower the cost of groceries and gas”
Hakeem Jeffries
Undo the tariff regime
House Democrats' 100-day agenda
Lower housing costs
Jeffries affordability working group
Lower gas and utility bills
Jeffries affordability working group
Make caregiving affordable
Jeffries affordability working group
“Retribution is not an economic policy.”
Jeffries promised both “affordability and accountability.” This ledger counts which one gets the floor time.
Affordability bills signed into law
Affordability bills passed by the House
Investigations and subpoenas aimed at the administration
Impeachment resolutions advanced
Counting starts when the 120th Congress convenes Jan 3, 2027.
FAIR PLAY
Who controls what.
A tracker that only counts the bad news isn't a tracker. If prices fall, this page will say so.
- The starting line was set under a Republican trifecta. We judge Democrats on the direction from here and what they pass.
- Congress writes laws; the President signs or vetoes them. A bill Trump vetoes is logged as passed.
- The Federal Reserve sets interest rates and answers to neither party.
- Crude oil is still the biggest part of a gallon, and it moves with world events no Congress controls.